Stein Wins!

           The world of politics, as well as the globe writ large, was shaken to its neoliberal foundations this week by the surprise victory of Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who did not qualify for debates and was accorded little media coverage, in the campaign for American president. Stein, a 74-year-old physician, will mark a trifecta of history as the nation’s first woman, Jew and third-party victor since 1860 to become commander-in-chief.

            Going into Election Day, polls as well as Las Vegas odds makers had shown the major-party candidates, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, locked neck-and-neck in a virtual dead heat, with seven key battleground states considered a tossup. The polls, it turns out, were dead wrong.

            A majority of American voters, it’s now clear, collectively decided that the two-party system, derided by critics as a “duopoly,” was no longer serving the country or their needs and needed to be sent a message: be responsive to our wants or needs, or we’ll kick you out.

            Pundits, editors and opinion researchers are reeling at this unprecedented and radical turn of events. “Odds that are more likely than not do not preclude an unlikely outcome,” polling expert Nate Silver of The New York Times said. “But this is different. Tens of millions of voters changed their minds, not about which candidate party to support, but about the system itself.” Moreover, voters deliberately misled researchers about their decision to cast ballots outside the two major parties.

            “It is really so shocking?” asked Ted Rall, a gadfly cartoonist and columnist. “Third-party voters have been vote-shamed for so long, it may have been easier to express themselves in the privacy of the voting booth than to fend off vote-shaming critics who told them that, say, ‘a vote for Stein is a vote for Trump.’”

            Shelly Jackson, a 37-year-old dental hygienist who has voted for both Democrats and Republicans, said she decided to vote for Stein after determining that she was unhappy with both Harris and Trump. “Neither of them had much to say, or at least not much to say that was credible or intelligent, about the biggest issues we face as a nation: climate change, stagnant wages, poverty, unaffordability of healthcare. After I did some research, I found third-party and independent candidates like Chase Oliver and Cornel West who were intelligent and thoughtful. Trump was obsessing over a murdered squirrel and Harris—even she didn’t know what she was saying. In the end, I went with Stein.”

            Until late on Election Night, Stein voters believed they were lone voices in the dark, casting protest votes that, as usual, wouldn’t affect the outcome. Typical was JoAnn LeCroix of Baton Rouge: “I told my male friends I was voting for Trump and my female friends I was voting for Kamala. That night, when I saw the results and Jill got to 270 electoral votes and CNN called it for her, I couldn’t believe it.”

            Acting on fears of increased government regulations and the belief that a Stein Administration might reduce America’s military projects around the world and make it easier for workers to organize, join unions and negotiate for improved wages and benefits, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 38% on the news, to recover later during the day after the election as civil engineering-related and green-energy sector stocks surged in expectation of increased government inspection.

            Traditional U.S. adversaries including China, Iran and Cuba expressed joy at Stein’s win, promising friendlier ties with a Stein Administration if it seeks them. Ukraine’s President, Volodomyr Zelensky, said his country would be ready for U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his intention to launch a nuclear strike in the occupied Gaza Strip in anticipation of a shift of U.S. policy away from military and financial support for Israel.

            One of many signs that something dramatic had occurred took the form of an unprecedented joint press conference between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. “Jill Stein is a hater, a bad woman who totally cheated like a dog. No one has ever seen anything like it,” Trump said as Harris nodded by his side, calling on the Democrats and Republicans to unify against a common threat. “Looking at this holistically,” Harris said, “it’s holistically impossible not to arrive at a holistic conclusion that something has happened that should not have happened. There’s no way that tens of millions of Americans suddenly started thinking for themselves. Stop the steal!” Democrats and Republicans promised to file lawsuits to challenge the results, pressure Stein electors to defect and, if need be, use military force to prevent what they called “a coup from within.”

            Stein’s Green Party, with no members in either the House or Senate, will face challenges in pushing legislation through Congress, long-time Beltway observers predict. One person given anonymity to speak freely, said: “This is an epic disaster for the rules-based order and the stability upon which it relies. Citizens will expect changes to improve their lives—and now we may be forced to give in. This is what happens when you foolishly entrust democratic institutions to protect democracy.”

(Ted Rall (Twitter: @tedrall), the political cartoonist, columnist and graphic novelist, co-hosts the left-vs-right DMZ America podcast with fellow cartoonist Scott Stantis. His latest book, brand-new right now, is the graphic novel 2024: Revisited.)

 

The TMI Show Ep 12: Your Voter Guide for Tomorrow’s Election

On the TMI Show for November 4th, co-hosts Ted Rall and Manila Chan err on the side of bringing you more information than you ever thought you needed. This time, with Election Day tomorrow, we offer you a Voters Guide about the five major presidential candidates: the good, the bad and the ugly about them, their policy stances and their parties. We deride, you decide! The TMI Show airs Monday through Friday at 10 am Eastern live, and streams in storage, on YouTube and Rumble.

In today’s headlines: an art heist, the state kills a squirrel and an icon of the music world sheds his mortal coil.

 

DMZ America Podcast Ep 172: Interview with Cartoonist David Horsey on Campaign 2024

It may feel surreal, but tens of millions of Americans have already voted and the wild 2024 presidential campaign comes to an end in days. The DMZ America podcast, which began at the beginning of the Biden Administration, reviews how we’ve arrived at this unexpected contest between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Pulitzer Prize-winning cartoonist David Horsey, formerly of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, joins DMZ co-hosts and cartoonist pals Ted Rall (from the Left) and Scott Stantis (from the Right) to analyze the closing minutes of the race and make their predictions.

Listen to the Audio Version:

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The TMI Show Ep 11: Is “Make America Healthy Again” Real?

Stream This Episode on: Rumble.

(It was censored on YouTube.)

TMI Show Co-hosts Ted Rall and Manila Chan delve into an almost-familiar acronym: MAHA, which stands for “Make America Healthy Again.” An improbable alliance between former President Donald Trump and Democratic scion Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has culminated with their shared MAHA agenda, which calls for reforming federal regulations on food and pharmaceuticals, switching up farm subsidies, and purging public health agencies.

The still-developing MAHA plan taps into longstanding frustrations with the U.S. healthcare system and issues — such as ultra-processed food, the spread chronic disease and declining U.S. life expectancy — that Democrats rarely talk about—not to mention Trump, whose dietary preferences infamously trend toward fast food. Ted and Manila interview Dr. John Dombrowski, CEO of the Washington Pain Center and a practicing physician, about MAHA. What is it? Is it real and serious? What should we expect from a second Trump Administration, and why haven’t Democrats addressed the issue?

In the headlines: The White House memory-holes Biden’s latest big gaffe. Halloween by the Numbers. And Much More!

Keywords: MAHA, Make America Healthy Again, Donald Trump, John Dombrowski, health, public health, diet, nutrition, obesity, addiction, preservatives, regulations, RFK Jr., Robert F. Kennedy Jr., drugs, pharmaceuticals

DMZ America Podcast Ep 170: Canadian Cartoonist Michael deAdder on Our Crazy Election

With one week left before Election Day 2024, editorial cartoonists with opposing politics and a great friendship, Ted Rall (Left) and Scott Stantis (Right) ask: why is Kamala Harris dead-even in the polls, and seemingly losing ground, against a maniac like Donald Trump? How did we get here? What did Biden, Harris and the Democrats do wrong and what could they have done better? And, if she wins, will they learn any lessons from the votes they left on the table through their own unforced errors?

Joining Ted and Scott is award-winning political cartoonist Michael deAdder, a Canadian artist whose work has appeared in The Washington Post and many other American publications. What is the view of the American race as seen by our northern neighbor? What would be the likely reaction to each potential outcome?

Watch the Video Version: here.

 

The TMI Show Ep 8: What Is Fascism?

As a history major at Columbia University, The TMI Show’s own Ted Rall’s thesis advisor was Professor Robert O. Paxton. Paxton wrote THE book on French fascism, “Vichy France.” He went on to write THE book on fascism writ large, “The Anatomy of Fascism.” Now age 92, Paxton recently gave an interview in which he cautiously agreed with the description of the MAGA movement led by former President Donald Trump as fascist in the traditional 20th century sense of the word. Kamala Harris has also weighed in, calling Trump himself a fascist.

What is fascism? Does Trump fit the bill? What about Trumpism?

Ted and TMI Show Guest Co-host Scott Stantis explain fascism’s historical origins in Italy after World War I through its radical manifestation in Nazi Germany and work to answer the question: is Donald Trump, with a 50% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, a fascist?

DMZ America Podcast Ep 169: Kamala Flagging as Trump Gains

Less than two weeks before Election Day, polls and a general sense of zeitgeist has many political commentators feeling that the tide is running away from Kamala Harris and toward Donald Trump in a razor-tight election campaign. Is it too late for Harris to solve her big problems: voters who don’t feel that they know her well enough to trust her with the launch codes, and her failure to articulate an enticing policy agenda they can easily understand? Political cartoonists and best friends Ted Rall (recovering Democrat, now Left) and Scott Stantis (recovering Republican, now Libertarian) walk you through the lay of this strange new land.

Watch the Video Version: here.

DMZ America Podcast, DMZ America, Ted Rall, Scott Stantis, politics, political podcast, politics podcast, editorial cartoons, political cartoons, cartoons, 2024 election campaign, polls, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris

A Tough Spot

For Democratic voters, especially liberal women, this election comes down to abortion rights. For those who are also concerned about Gaza, they point out that Donald Trump might be even worse than Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, in terms of their support of Israel. For the people of Gaza, including women, it’s a distinction without a difference.

Back to the Basement

Like Joe Biden in 2020, Donald Trump is 78 years old and showing signs of dementia. How can Republicans cover up the truth about his cognitive acuity? Fortunately for them, the Democrats showed how it’s done.

The Strategic Voting Fallacy

         Many people who typically vote Republican but dislike Trump, and others who typically vote Democratic but dislike Harris, are wrestling with a fundamental dilemma of the voter who lives in a duopoly.

A vote is an endorsement. A vote declares to the world: “I approve of this candidate.” There is no half-vote. A vote is binary: yes or no. If your vote helps someone win who goes on to do something awful, their sins are partly your fault.

If there are only two major-party candidates, and both seem likely to commit an atrocity if they win, the moral and rational alternative is clear: vote for a third-party or independent candidate whose odds of carrying out a heinous act appear to be low, or boycott the election.

For the 61% of Americans who oppose sending more weapons to Israel, this condition has been met. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are both enthusiastic supporters of Israel’s genocidal war against Palestinian civilians in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank. Both have promised to send more bombs, more missiles, more money and more intelligence to the Israelis. A vote for Harris is a vote for more genocide. So is a vote for Trump. If you vote for either the Democrat or the Republican, the blood of every Palestinian who dies or gets maimed after January 20th will be on you.

I am not saying this to make you feel guilty. I am merely stating a fact.

If they care to vote at all, pro-Palestinian voters can support Jill Stein, Cornel West, Chase Oliver or someone else. But then they must contend with the strategic voting fallacy.

Strategic voting, or “lesser of two evils” voting, is the act of casting a ballot in favor of a candidate you do not support, in order to prevent a second candidate you oppose more, from winning. By definition, because non-duopoly candidates are unlikely to win, a vote for someone other than a Democrat or a Republican is a “wasted” vote that, de facto, supports the major-party candidate you hate most. Aside from the self-alienating cognitive dissonance of consciously endorsing a politician whose policies of which you do not approve, strategic voting is deeply illogical and mathematically ridiculous.

First and foremost, it is statistically impossible—beyond the point of winning-the-Lotto odds—that your single vote could ever change the outcome of an American election at the state or national level. This is not to say that an election can’t be close. The 2000 Bush v. Gore presidential race came down to 537 votes that determined the pivotal state of Florida; the 1916 contest between Woodrow Wilson and Charles Hughes boiled down to 3,420 votes in California. But the odds that one vote can change the result of an American presidential election are so vanishingly small as not to be worthy of serious consideration by anyone with more than two IQ points to rub together.

A statistical analysis of the 2008 election published in the academic journal Economic Inquiry by Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver and Aaron Edlin proves this point. “One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event,” the authors noted. “On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election.”

If you vote to “make a difference,” you’d get better results from playing a classic Pick-6 Lotto game; odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 32 million. Unlike voting, it pays.

True, your vote might determine who sits in the Oval Office the next four years. It’s never happened before. It’s never even been close. Statistically, 537 votes in Florida was not close. Would you go to a job interview where your odds of getting hired were 1-in-537? It would be irrational, just as it would be crazy to avoid flying—even though the odds of dying in a plane crash (1 in 11 million) are much higher than your vote tipping a national election.

Strategic voting requires precise analysis of perfectly accurate polls capped by a completely subjective determination of whether a candidate has a viable chance of winning.

Setting aside the challenges faced by pollsters trying to sample a population’s opinions from mobile phones rather than landlines, a problem illustrated by the many polling organizations who failed to predict Trump’s 2016 victory, high-quality polls are subject to a margin of error of several percentage points. In a tight race, in which the margin of a win can be within that margin, a poll is as useful as a coin flip. Finally, strategic voters must ask themselves: assuming I can find a poll that I totally believe, where is the numerical tipping point where a race becomes so skewed in my state that I should free to vote my conscience, i.e. for a third-party or independent candidate, or not at all?

In Montana, where Trump leads Harris 56-39, it’s safe to say the former president has the state in the bag. Montana voters tempted to cast a protest vote against the Israelis’ genocide in Gaza needn’t lose much sleep by filling in the oval for Jill Stein. It’s a different affair in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, where Harris leads Trump by one point, 49-48, well within the margin of error—that is, of course, assuming these polls are right and that, if they are, they won’t change much between now and when you cast your vote.

What about a state where one candidate leads 55-45? A ten-point difference would be hard to overcome, and it wouldn’t be considered a swing state, but it’s not impossible—such things have happened before.

This is where the absurdity of strategic voting escalates even further.

What constitutes a close race? A close-enough race to believe (falsely, as Nate Silver and his friends proved in their study that your single vote could affect the outcome)? 51-49? Of course. (Though it’s not true.) 75-25. Of course not. (But that’s no less true than the 51-49 scenario.) 53-47? Maybe?

(Ted Rall (Twitter: @tedrall), the political cartoonist, columnist and graphic novelist, co-hosts the left-vs-right DMZ America podcast with fellow cartoonist Scott Stantis. His latest book, brand-new right now, is the graphic novel 2024: Revisited.)

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