An unprovoked — remember, they’re no threat to us — U.S. attack against Syria seems inevitable. When will it happen? What form will it take? What happens next? Here are my bets.
Second answer first: I agree with everyone else that it will probably be a series of cruise missile strikes against Syrian military bases, radar facilities and government offices. There can and probably will be unforeseen secondary explosions, as when fuel supplies and arms depots blow up, and fire travels through gas lines under streets to destroy whole blocks. Civilian casualties will be substantial, in the hundreds. Not that Syrian army personnel deserve to be blown up for Obama’s ego, but the Western media doesn’t care about them.
First answer: Sunday East Coast time. Gives the UN time to withdraw their inspectors, who are leaving today, and takes advantage of the media blackout over the long holiday weekend here in the States. Belligerents typically take the weekend attack approach, especially when there is little support for the war they’re about to start.
As for next steps, Western “experts” are constantly predicting retaliatory attacks by U.S. victims and their allies. Though blowback is inevitable, it won’t come in such an obvious or immediate form. Nothing much will happen to the U.S. as a result. But it does take the U.S. down a dark yet familiar road of escalation. If cruise missiles attacks fail to deter Assad from using chemical weapons (which we don’t know that he did), then maybe we need to use greater force? If the rebels fail to gain an advantage, hawks will repeat the Libya argument that we need to do more to help them. And if the Qaeda-affiliated insurgents win, then we can attack them. More likely, this will further inflame anti-Americanism around the world, hasten a Talibanized Syria and turn the Middle East not into a fireball, but a series of increasingly sporadic wildfires. Good fun, just the way Washington policymakers like it.
Polls currently have war against Syria running about 50-50. Here’s everything you need to know about the American media: how many antiwar “experts” are we hearing from on CNN, MSNBC or FoxNews? I still haven’t seen a single one. Even Barbara Lee went on MSNBC yesterday to say that the case for bombing Syria was compelling, but she thought Congress should vote on it.