Ceasefire in Gaza, An Offer Israel Can’t Refuse—Yet It Is

            The Left is doing something right.

            And it’s something that I initially disagreed with, even though I didn’t comment in a public space.

            When Israel overreacted to Hamas’ October 7th attack on western Israel with a brutal saturation bombing campaign against the Palestinian civilian population of the Gaza Strip, defenders of human rights, antiwar activists and supporters of the Palestinian liberation movement demanded a ceasefire.

            To me, that felt like yet another example of the Left settling for too little, negotiating against itself. Ask for the stars, I usually advise, and you might settle for the moon. Ask for the moon and you might wind up with nothing. A ceasefire isn’t an armistice, much less a peace agreement. It’s merely an interruption in a war. What kind of antiwar activist doesn’t ask for an end to a war?

One of the most famous examples is the Christmas Truce of 1914, when German and British troops crawled out of their trenches and met in no-man’s land to exchange presents, play soccer and celebrate the holiday together. A day or two later, however, World War I resumed. It’s a cute story that changed nothing.

            Israel owes the people of Gaza nothing less than an immediate cessation of hostilities and official acceptance that the current conflict is a war crime for which top Israeli governmental and military officials should be prosecuted. The IDF should withdraw. Israel should pay to rebuild everything it destroyed and compensate the families of dead and wounded Palestinians. It should house everyone it has displaced on Israeli territory, in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem if need be. It should recognize a free and sovereign Republic of Palestine in Gaza and the West Bank, with East Jerusalem as its capital, within 1967 borders along with a safe corridor to connect the currently non-contiguous borders. The 700,000 settler-colonists should leave the West Bank and return to Israel.

            A ceasefire seems so tiny by comparison.

            Which is why it’s proving effective as a demand.

            When people confront two parties engaged in a conflict, one of their first reactions is to try to assess which, if either, is right (or at least more right). This determination is affected by such cognitive biases as whether one side looks or acts more like the person making the assessment. In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, some Americans have baked-in personal allegiances because they are Jewish or Muslim.

            Which leaves the other 97% of the population. Citizens of the United States are notoriously ignorant about politics and cultures beyond their borders. To the extent that they pay attention to the Middle East conflict, there has been a historical bias in favor of Israel, a fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ally President Joe Biden relied upon at the beginning of the war in Gaza. As we have seen in the past, however, Israeli overreaction has prompted the public to take a closer look and, following the usual practice, led them to a “pox on both of their houses” stance. Deputy National Security Adviser K.T. McFarland repeated that trope in 2020 when she claimed on Fox News that in “…the Middle East, they’ve been fighting for 4,000 years. It’s been an ethno-sectarian battle and psychodrama, and they’ve been killing each other for millennia. Their normal state of condition is war.” (This is not even a little bit true, but let’s leave that for another time.)

            20,000+ dead Palestinians into the latest episode of the conflict, the Gaza war has become a catastrophe too big to ignore or dismiss with glib inanities. Day after day, as Americans’ social media feeds fills with bloody images of dead Palestinian babies, initial public sympathy for Israel has given way to a feeling that the Palestinians of Gaza are victims at least as much as the Israelis of October 7th. Choosing sides is no longer easy. But one thing is clear: the carnage has gone on too long and, even if a long-term conclusion like a two-state solution is impossibly elusive, the bombing simply has to stop.

            By mid-December, three out of five American voters—with few differences between political parties—supported a ceasefire, up significantly from October. The public had caught up to the pro-Palestinian activists. By not asking for much, the Left appears moderate and reasonable.

            Meanwhile, voters keep reading headlines in which the Israeli government is refusing a ceasefire. To the contrary, Netanyahu says the war will continue for “many more months.” Israel is framing itself as rabid, overreaching and bloodthirsty.

            Because it is out of sync with public opinion, good will for Israel is ebbing like the pulse of a man bleeding to death from a gunshot wound. Although older voters still tend to support Israel, a mere 28% of voters between ages 18 and 29 told the latest New York Times/Sienna College poll that they believed Israel was seriously interested in a peaceful solution. On the other hand, half said the Palestinians do want peace.

(Ted Rall (Twitter: @tedrall), the political cartoonist, columnist and graphic novelist, co-hosts the left-vs-right DMZ America podcast with fellow cartoonist Scott Stantis. You can support Ted’s hard-hitting political cartoons and columns and see his work first by sponsoring his work on Patreon.)

Selfish Biden Doesn’t Care If Trump Wins

President Biden doesn’t care about the country. He doesn’t care about his party. He doesn’t mind if Donald Trump wins back the presidency. The only thing he cares about is himself—his ego, to be exact.

I’m not inside Joe’s head. But there’s only one other possible explanation for his stubborn continuing insistence on running for reelection—that he’s insane.

Unless Trump dies or succumbs to a major health setback, there’s an 85% chance that the legally embattled former president will be the Republican nominee in 2024. True, a 15% chance is real. It’s not zero. But you shouldn’t, you can’t, not unless you’re a total moron, make an important decision that relies on 15% probability.

Biden will almost certainly be running against Trump again.

And he will probably lose. The polls are clear about that.

True, the election is a year away. Things may change. Biden might eek out a victory. But Trump is in the lead, his lead is increasing, and it’s hard to imagine an event that could significantly affect voters’ opinions about either man. We know them both all too well, the good, the bad, the ugly, everything.

Historical point: No incumbent in modern history has recovered from polls this poor and won reelection. CNN polls taken 11 months before previous re-election bids show Clinton at 52% (he won), Bush at 63% (he won), Obama at 49% (he won) and Trump at 44% (he lost).  Biden is at 37%.

Biden’s floor is dropping out from beneath his feet: even voters who supported him in 2020 think he’s too old for a second term and/or feel disappointed with him for a variety of reasons (failure to deliver on student loan forgiveness, inflation, his support of Israel). He relentlessly trends downward. “On question after question, the public’s view of the president has plummeted over the course of his time in office,” The New York Times poll reported a month ago. “The deterioration in Mr. Biden’s standing is broad, spanning virtually every demographic group, yet it yields an especially deep blow to his electoral support among young, Black and Hispanic voters, with Mr. Trump obtaining previously unimaginable levels of support with them.”

Setbacks usually, well, set back a candidate—unless his name is Trump. As Trump’s legal issues pile up, his primary and general election poll numbers soar.

Democratic voters are much less enthusiastic (33% want him as their nominee) than Republicans are about Trump (46%).  The concern is not that Democrats will vote for Trump; analysts worry that they won’t vote at all, or vote for an independent or third-party candidate, as I plan to do.

Trump, most Democrats and some Republicans believe, has authoritarian tendencies. Whether a second term would lead to dictatorship or merely erode democracy, he threatens our rights and freedoms. Biden himself has said as much on countless occasions.

Democracy, they say is on the ballot. If that’s true, and if democracy matters, why go into this fight with a historically weak candidate?

A patriot puts his country ahead of his desire to go down in history as a two-term president and the thrill he feels when “Hail to the Chief” plays when he walks into a room. Not Biden. He insists on running despite his historically unprecedented old age, atrocious poll numbers and the high stakes of the election.

In 2020 Biden convinced himself that he was the only Democrat who could defeat Trump. This wasn’t true: any number of other Democrats, including Bernie Sanders, would have done better than he did. Biden can’t possibly believe the same thing now.

Even the famously unpopular Vice President Kamala Harris outperforms the president against Trump.

Biden may take comfort in hypothetical matchups which show that Trump would also defeat alternative Democrats like California Governor Gavin Newsom. If so, he is a fool.

Other Democratic politicians with presidential aspirations like Corey Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren and Newsom himself are not popular—and it’s Biden’s fault. These other figures have all been denied their chance to build a rapport with voters because Biden and the DNC have cleared the field for Biden.

Forced to stand down while pledging fealty to Biden, no other Democrat has had a chance to build their case for running against Trump. It may well be true that none of them could do as well as Biden, much less defeat Trump. But we know that Biden will probably get clobbered. If Biden were to step aside and withdraw his candidacy, at least there would be a chance that some other Democrat might beat Trump.

If Biden isn’t able to grasp this simple arithmetic, he may well be as mentally impaired as his harshest critics allege.

Whether it’s his pride or intellectual frailty, Biden is such an SOB that he appears to be willing to sleepwalk his candidacy, his party and possibly the country to their doom.

(Ted Rall (Twitter: @tedrall), the political cartoonist, columnist and graphic novelist, co-hosts the left-vs-right DMZ America podcast with fellow cartoonist Scott Stantis. You can support Ted’s hard-hitting political cartoons and columns and see his work first by sponsoring his work on Patreon.)

It’s Not Biden’s Age, Stupids

            Polls keep saying the same thing: voters think President Joe Biden is too old.

            The latest comes from some outfit called “The New York Times.” According to these “Times” people: “An overwhelming 71% said [Biden] was ‘too old’ to be an effective president—an opinion shared across every demographic and geographic group in the poll, including a remarkable 54% of Mr. Biden’s own supporters.” Just because he’s 80.

            Almost 81.

If the election were held today, the poll monsters go on, “Trump would be poised to win more than 300 electoral college votes, far above the 270 needed to take the White House.”

            On paper, where things get printed, it looks bad. “Even Kamala Harrisno political juggernaut so far—fares a bit better than Mr. Biden, trailing Mr. Trump by three points in a hypothetical matchup, compared with Mr. Biden’s five-point deficit,” the Times says.

            Fortunately for Democrats, Biden doesn’t live on paper. Our commander-in-chief is a skeletal flesh-and-bone human being. And he has the answer to these so-called “polls”: “I don’t believe the polls.” Exactly so, Mr. President. Anyone who takes the $8 billion-a-year public opinion and election polling industry and its thousands of highly-educated analysts seriously is plainly a poltroon and a malarkey-peddling pony soldier!

Ooo, look at us with our 95% accuracy rate, we’re soooo smart!

            Democrats have got to get the president’s message, whatever that is, out there. Otherwise voters might listen to Congressman Dean Phillips of Minnesota, the 54-year-old twerp challenging Biden in the Democratic primaries. “83% of Democrats under 30 want a different nominee. You know, a lot of politicians lie, but the numbers don’t,” Phillips says. Phillips loves Biden and voted with him literally 100% of the time; his only beef with the prez is the age thing.

            Like how James Carville famously said “it’s the economy, stupid” and that somehow got Clinton elected president, Biden needs to tell someone loudly and proudly: “It’s not about my age, even more, stupids!”

            Studies prove it with 95% accuracy: when people are thinking about one thing, they’re not thinking about something else. So, if we want voters to stop focusing on Biden’s age, we need to seduce them into obsessing over a different subject entirely.

            For instance, Biden might run attack ads pointing out that, at 77, Trump is no spring chicken his own self. Ad copy first draft: “If Biden is too old, Trump is almost as old as he is so at bare minimum he’s almost too old too!”

            Or, for heterosexual male voters, we could just show and talk about women’s breasts. Age who?

            But really, because this is politics and it’s supposed to be about policies, Democrats should migrate the focus on age over to the president’s handling of the economy. Well, they’ve been trying that. The problem is, the voters hate Bidenomics. The thing about voters is, they don’t respond well when you remind them why they hate you.

Why do the voters hate Bidenomics? Because people are psychologically selfish. Rich people and the stock market are doing great but the voters are broke and so are unappreciative. “Whatever stories Americans are told about the strength of the economy under President Joe Biden, they are not going to be persuaded to look past the issue of their own living standards,” liberal economist James Galbraith writes. Ingrates!

            Never mind the economy. Which is an awesome economy, no matter what your wallet tells you. And another thing—why is your wallet talking? Are you on fentanyl? If so, why can you afford fancy opioids? Bidenomics, that’s why!

            Pivot, pivot, pivot! Maybe Biden should focus on young people. They were a key part of his coalition in 2020, dropped away from Democrats during the 2022 midterms and are expected to stay away in 2024. Let’s get them back.

            Biden’s ace in the hole: come out as trans. Trans-young! Biden will announce that he now identifies as a 33-year-old. Not as the racist 33-year-old SOB he was in 1975 when he ran for Congress in Delaware while opposing court-ordered school desegregation and supporting pro-apartheid senator Jesse Helms’ attacks on bussing. As a cool modern one with, like, a goatee.

Trans-young Biden will dump the birthdate he was assigned at birth in favor of his lifestyle birthdate, 1990. It’ll even be on his new driver’s license, assuming he’s able to get the old one back after Hunter took it away along with his car keys.

As a dude who retroactively came of age in the 2010s, he’ll be underpaid, overworked and totally unable to repay his college student loans—just like the young voters who are mad at him because he didn’t forgive their student loans.

Common ground!

            Maybe we should talk to Kamala.

(Ted Rall (Twitter: @tedrall), the political cartoonist, columnist and graphic novelist, co-hosts the left-vs-right DMZ America podcast with fellow cartoonist Scott Stantis. You can support Ted’s hard-hitting political cartoons and columns and see his work first by sponsoring his work on Patreon.)

Hail to the Jailbird President

All Hail the Prisoner-in-Chief | Ted Rall's Rallblog

            Each time Donald Trump has been indicted, his poll numbers went up—among Republican voters who closed ranks around him in response to what they decried as politically motivated “lawfare.” Now he enjoys a commanding lead for the GOP nomination.

            Of course, it’s one thing to win the nomination of your party, an exercise that requires motivating the hardcore partisans who form the ideological base. To prevail in a general election, conventional wisdom says, you’ll need to appeal to moderates and swing voters. Democrats pivot right after their summer convention; Republicans don’t pivot left as much as they pull back their red meat appeals to the right.

            That said, corporate media seems determined not to plumb the depths of  cluelessness-driven embarrassment they displayed in 2016, when the New York Times told readers on election morn that Hillary had an 85% chance of winning. “Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle,” CNN reports.

            Still, the question remains. Can the ultimate base-dependent candidate reach beyond his MAGA partisans as he seeks reelection?

            Two factors suggest that he can.

            One is a data point: A June 21st Quinnipiac poll found that 62% of voters believe that the Department of Justice has been weaponized against Trump and that the federal charges against him for mishandling classified documents, for which he faces more than 400 years in prison, are politically motivated. Biden and the Democratic Party probably don’t even admit it to themselves—but that includes a lot of Democratic voters. 28% of Democrats think Trump’s legal troubles are more about politics than his wrongdoing.

            And here’s a major warning sign: 65% of independents agree.

            Some of those Democrats think Trump’s the victim of a witch hunt—and they love it. Anything to get rid of him works for them. An AP-NORC poll from April found that 57% of respondents thought Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s charges against Trump for falsifying business records were politically-motivated; the same percent (not the same cohort) approved.

            And yet—those independents. Neither red nor Blue No Matter Who, a good portion of them disapprove of the way Trump has been targeted. Even among the Democrats, some want Trump gone while not liking the way he’s been forced to play subpoena whack-a-mole. As the charges and hearings pile up, those feelings can only increase in number and intensity.

            The other factor is a major component of America’s national character; we love us an underdog. We’ve subscribed to the  underdog myth “ever since 13 scrappy colonies went up against the largest empire in the modern world. The beauty of America is everybody can think of themselves as an underdog in some way,” historian Ed Ayers told NPR in 2018.

            Brian Balogh, another historian, added: “We have people like Donald Trump, who has styled himself as an underdog. I mean in fact, Donald Trump came from quite a wealthy background, but he’s somebody who feels no matter what kind of advantage he has in politics, the whole system is rigged against him. I don’t think you can understand Donald Trump unless you understand that the vast majority of people who voted for [Hillary] Clinton came from counties where the economy is contributing a disproportionate amount to the GDP, and those who voted for Trump came from counties where, where they live is underrepresented in America’s economy. They are literally underdogs.”

            Swarming Trump with civil lawsuits, state and federal indictments has fed into Trump’s longstanding narrative that this heir to a multimillion-dollar real-estate empire who attended an Ivy League school and hobnobbed with starlets and presidents is actually a victim of a cabal of privileged coconspirators, and not merely a sad-sack punching bag but a noble warrior fighting more for everyday people than himself. Joe and Jane Sixpack don’t stow military plans in their bathroom or pay hush money to porn stars or rip off aspiring college kids or try to overturn elections, yet they empathize more with the perpetrator of these deeds than the authority figures attempting to hold him to account. Truly, it’s a political miracle.

            What these prosecutors don’t seem to know (and probably shouldn’t care about) is that we, the people, hate their guts much more than we look down on the crass self-dealing and personal corruption of someone like Trump or, for that matter, Biden. Everyone has gotten a ticket or a tax bill they thought was unfair. Everyone has felt disrespected by a cop and unheard by a judge and screwed over by the government and, in general, the justice system. (My favorite relevant aphorism: we don’t have a justice system, we have a legal system.) Americans disapprove of the Supreme Court by a 2-to-1 margin, 41% think civil courts are unfair and 80% want substantial reform to the criminal justice system.

            For some voters, the choice won’t come down to Trump and Biden. It’ll be Trump versus The System writ large. If I were Trump, even if I were sitting behind bars on election day—especially—I’d like my odds.

(Ted Rall (Twitter: @tedrall), the political cartoonist, columnist and graphic novelist, co-hosts the left-vs-right DMZ America podcast with fellow cartoonist Scott Stantis. You can support Ted’s hard-hitting political cartoons and columns and see his work first by sponsoring his work on Patreon.)

20 Years to Life—in the White House

Donald Trump’s poll numbers increased after Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg indicted him for business fraud. Now it looks like he’ll be arrested again, this time for mishandling classified documents. Republicans will circle the wagons around him again, of course.

Florida Man Thinks He’s a Winner

Ron DeSantis is really far behind Donald Trump in the polls for the Republican presidential nomination. Yet he argues that he has a better chance of defeating Joe Biden in the general election.

Joe Biden and the Democrats: A Slow-Motion Train Wreck of Their Own Making

           A new Washington Post-ABC News poll places the President’s approval rating at a record low, 36%. In the modern era, no president has been reelected with numbers like these.

            58% of Democrats want their party to nominate someone other than Joe Biden in 2024. Of Democrats.

            If the election were held today, Donald Trump would beat Joe Biden by four points.

            Only 32% of voters think Biden has sufficient mental sharpness to do a president’s job.

            This, as grim is it all is, is the good news. Enjoy, Democrats! Because it’s downhill from here. The economy is, as usual stupid, the biggest issue; just as the campaign begins this fall, so will a recession, according to the Federal Reserve Bank. Then there’s Hunter Biden’s pesky laptop, the gift that keeps on giving to the Republicans. Whether Joe proves to be “the big guy” who gets slices of kickbacks or the $13 million that mysteriously wound up in his bank account in 2017 and 2018 turns out to be a bribe paid by an Uzbekistani telecom or some other scandal related to the crack-addict deadbeat-dad son who refuses to shut up, it’s beginning to smell a lot like whoop-ass.

            Biden reminds me of the classic “Tales from the Darkside” episode in which a grandfather is too stubborn to admit that he’s dead even as chunks of flesh slip off his face. The American people have a clear, loud message for the president, which he refuses to hear: we hired you for one term. Which is kind of what he promised.

            It isn’t, of course, too late to reverse course. Nothing prevents the president from announcing: “Well, on second thought, actually I’d like to spend more time with my great-great-grandchildren.” Who knows? With Joe an officially lame duck, Kamala Harris might step up and impress us with her border czarina gig—or her new AI thingie.

            Could be he’s up to some 17-dimensional chess, as suggested by my fellow Centerclip contributor Rina Shah. Shah recently mused, and I think she’s on to something, that Biden officially announced in order to clear the field of Democratic competitors and set the stage for him to anoint his chosen successor whether they be Harris or someone less impressively unpopular. Such political bait-and-switch would be a new low—but don’t forget, we are talking about a guy who got 51 former intelligence officers to manipulate a presidential election for him, while risking World War III.

            Short of these two options, what can an incumbent president who is disliked, disrespected and deemed to be dim, do to dodge defeat?

            We know what Democrats plan to do: what worked in 2020.

            Biden will point out that he’s not Trump. “Compare him to the alternative,” Biden surrogate Senator Chris Coons (D-DE) says. He won’t campaign. “Frankly, the best way to run for re-election as president is to be president,” Coons argues. He’ll avoid debating his Democratic primary challengers. He’ll hope Trump goes to prison (as if the legal system could act quickly).

            But 2024 isn’t 2020. The pandemic is over. America is outside again. Americans expect their president to be out there with them.

            “Watch me. It’s all I can say.” That’s what Biden says whenever a reporter asks whether he’s too old for his job. Trouble for him is, we have been watching—for three years—and the results are in that Washington Post-ABC News poll. Fair or not, we don’t like what we see.

            Biden and the Democrats can’t talk their way out of the widespread perception that the president is past his due date. Cries of “ageism” are falling on deaf ears, including among the 62% of voters over age 65 who think Biden is too old. There’s one possible solution: stop hidin’ Biden.

            Put the President out in front of the White House press corps every single day of the week, fielding unscripted questions, no cheatsheets allowed. Have him do weekly town halls, including in hostile Republican territory. Grant presidential interviews to vicious right-wingers like Sean Hannity—and don’t forget left-wing progressives. If Biden does all that for months on end and manages to hold his own, he might turn some of us into believers.

            Biden’s staffers and advisers, many of whom worked for Obama, are not stupid people. They know what must be done to save this doomed reelection campaign. Unfortunately, they know they can’t do it. Biden isn’t up to a tough race.

            So here the Democrats go, eyes wide-open, standing like idiots on the tracks as the train appears in the distance and slowly draws nearer. Disaster is as avoidable as can be. They can amble off those tracks any time. All they have to do to save themselves is make a move.

            Right now, they’re paralyzed.

(Ted Rall (Twitter: @tedrall), the political cartoonist, columnist and graphic novelist, co-hosts the left-vs-right DMZ America podcast with fellow cartoonist Scott Stantis and co-hosts “The Final Countdown” radio show Mon-Fri 10 am – 12 noon ET. You can support Ted’s hard-hitting political cartoons and columns and see his work first by sponsoring his work on Patreon.)

Very Risky Business

Democrats are currently engaged in a very risky strategy: they are financing right wing pro Trump Republicans in Republican primaries and runoff elections based on the assumption that they will be easier to defeat in the fall. While they are at it, perhaps they should use similar tactics on abortion…

Hanging on the Flimsiest of Hopes

Joe Biden’s latest approval ratings for president Joe Biden are 33%, which is pretty much a deal killer for a reelection campaign. Two out of three Democrats don’t even want the president to run again. He is changing his hopes on the fact that 92% of Democrats would vote for him over Donald Trump, but of course, 92% of Democrats would vote for a rutabaga over Donald Trump. Besides, who are these 8%?

DMZ America Podcast #44: Is This the End of the American Century? Sex Education in Schools and How Low in the Polls can President Biden and the Democrats Go?

Two of America’s best political commentators, cartoonists Ted Rall and Scott Stantis, discuss the sun setting on this last American century. The “Don’t Say ‘Gay'” policy in our public schools gets a closer look and the latest polls are in, and things are looking pretty bleak for the Biden Administration and the Democratic Party.

 

 

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