First the United States and its allies pressure Russia by placing missiles in Poland, near its border. Then the West tries to expand NATO right up to the Russian border, by inviting Ukraine to join. When the Russians respond by massing troops along their own border, we have the unmitigated nerve to say that they are provoking us.
If We Were on the Other Side of the Ukraine-Russia Crisis
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Of course, there’s the other, other side to consider. If I were Putin (and going by the press conference going on right now, I’m amazed Putin hasn’t invaded already), I’d invade Ukraine, put Biden (he’s sputtering about, uh, uh, hamburgers and gas right now as I type) right at the crotch of Morton’s Fork: start a long, drawn-out land war (even if only by proxy) that Biden will lose just like the last one OR hand Trump a perfect campaign plank. “Putin didn’t try anything like this during my time in office. Because he knew I was bigly and awesome. And Joe Biden let the Russians invade our beautiful friends in Ukraine.”
Not sure what that would gain him, frankly. Or us.
This is mere sabre-rattling on all sides I think, though with a minuscule chance of escalation beyond the level of a “minor incursion”. Speaks well of Biden that he’s accounting for that possibility by the way. Means he could climb down more easily.
War, even at the current level they have there now, is horrendous. However, the current level benefits those in power in Washington, Moscow and Kiev alike. It lets them look like they are standing up to something or other. An escalation that would force them to actually do something beyond self-aggrandisement would not so benefit them, or at least would be a huge gamble. I hope I am right in assuming none of the bigmen are gamblers.
The Biden on that bizarre press conference yesterday is not someone who should be making any decisions. I am very concerned about how tremendously he will fulfill Barack Obama’s warning that no one underestimate how badly Joe Biden can mess things up.