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TMI Show Ep 87: Recession Fears

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Ted Rall

Live at 10 am Eastern/9 am Central time, and Streaming 24-7 Thereafter:

Historically, Bloomberg Economics has used a recession probability model that incorporates factors like housing permits, consumer sentiment, corporate profit outlooks, and Treasury yield gaps. It doesn’t always work. For example, in October 2022, they projected a 100% chance of a U.S. recession by October 2023, driven by aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, tightening financial conditions, and persistent inflation.

Here we go again. Consumer confidence fell this month by the most since August 2021 on concerns about the outlook for the broader economy, Bloomberg notes. Many consumers think we’ll see a recession later this year. That pessimism has more than half of consumers delaying major life plans due to uncertainty over the economy and the consequences of Trump’s tariff threats. Of those, about a third said they were putting off buying a home while one in six have postponed education plans—and one in eight have pushed back retirement.

On today’s episode of “The TMI Show,” Ted Rall and Manila Chan discuss the prospects for the economy with finance expert Aquiles Larrea.

TMI Show Ep 85: Germany’s Politics Move Right. What Could Go Wrong?

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Ted Rall

Live at 10 am Eastern/9 am Central time, and Streaming 24-7 Thereafter:

When German politics shift to the Right, the world gets nervous. German’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party came in second in parliamentary elections, largely on the strength of German anger over the economy and anti-migration nativist sentiment. Has AfD peaked out? Does this presage results in France and other European countries? How should we feel and respond to the right of the German Right?

On today’s episode of “The TMI Show,” Ted Rall and Manila Chan discuss the AfD’s victory in Germany.

TMI Show Ep 72: Trump Endorses Ethnic Cleansing of Gaza + Did Trump Choke on Tariffs?

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Ted Rall

Live at 10 am Eastern/9 am Central time, and Streaming 24-7 Thereafter:

A shocking (but not surprising) turn of events prompts a special edition of the show today.

First: As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu smiled next to him like the cat who ate the canary, President Trump brazenly endorsed the forcible expulsion of at least 1.7 million Palestinians from Gaza so that the bombed and bulldozed site of Israeli genocide can be occupied either by U.S. real estate interests or by Israel. Manila Chan and Ted Rall break down the implications for the Middle East.

Second: Trump said that Canada and Mexico couldn’t do anything to stop his 25% tariffs on goods. “We’re not looking for a concession,” he said. Three days later, Trump paused the tariffs on both countries for 30 days, citing concessions they had made.

Trump’s tariffs threatened to increase inflation and spooked the stock market. Did Trump’s pullback have more to do with that looming economic pain than with the concessions? What happens in a month?

On today’s “The TMI Show,” Manila Chan and Ted Rall discuss the future of tariffs under Trump with wealth management and finance expert Aquiles Larrea.

TMI Show Ep 70: Tariff Terror!

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Ted Rall

Live at 10 am Eastern/9 am Central time, and Streaming 24-7 Thereafter:

Trump made good on his threat to slap tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada over the weekend. All imports from China now face a 10% duty. It’s 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada. Canadian oil, natural gas and electricity, will be taxed 10%. Trump’s order includes a mechanism to escalate the rates charged by the U.S. against retaliation by the other countries, raising the specter of an even more severe economic disruption. Trump demanded that the three nations to stop the manufacture and export of fentanyl and that Canada and Mexico reduce illegal immigration into the U.S.

The tariffs could cause inflation to worsen. They are likely to cause turmoil in supply chains and have an impact on financial markets, though not immediately.

On today’s “The TMI Show,” Manila Chan and Ted Rall discuss Trump’s tariffs and their impacts on your life.

TMI Show Ep 62: “Trump’s Busy First Day”

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Ted Rall

Listen and Watch LIVE at 10 am Eastern time/7 am Pacific time today and Streaming 24-7 thereafter:

After a strange inauguration speech that really wasn’t, President Donald Trump charged out of the gate on his first day with a blizzard of executive orders and actions designed to remake the government as quickly as possible in his image. Within hours, he pardoned or commuted the sentences of the January 6th defendants and inmates, declared an emergency at the Mexican border that allows him to send the military, shut down the main immigration app, declared drug cartels to be terrorist organizations, fired over 1000 Biden appointees, threw a lifeline to TikTok, re-declared Cuba a partner of terrorists, withdrew from the Paris climate agreement and the World Health Organization, and attempted to end birthright citizenship.

Oh, and the DOGE bromance ended 6.75 hours into Trump’s second term.

On today’s “TMI Show” hosts Ted Rall and Manila Chan tell you what’s likely to stick and what’s not, what’s happening and why it matters, and predict what’s coming next down the pike.

TMI Show Ep 61: “Trump 47: Lame Duck or Wrecking Ball?”

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Ted Rall

This morning at 10 AM Eastern time and streaming 24-7 thereafter anytime:

Donald Trump becomes the first president since 1893 to return to office after having lost an election and sitting out for years. What can we expect from his second term?

“The TMI Show”’s Ted Rall and Manila Chan analyze the prospects for the new administration’s economic policies and their chances for success amid a clear division within their own party about whether to go with trickle-down economics or populist economics. What about those mass deportations? Not to mention the price of eggs.

On the foreign-policy front, Trump promised to fix the Ukraine war immediately after taking office. Will it be done by tomorrow? Will the first phase of the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas hold, and will there be a second and third one? Will there be a trade war with China?

TMI Show Ep 51: “What Next for the Economy?”

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Ted Rall

Donald Trump, who takes office in a matter of days, defeated Kamala Harris in large part because of voter dissatisfaction over the economy. But what will his economy look like?

In many ways, this is a tale of two economies. The stock market, tech and the wealthy are doing better than ever. The working class and manufacturing are struggling. Can Trump reconcile his populist and billionaire bases? Can he keep inflation under control? Might he consider expanding the social safety net, especially for healthcare, or increase the minimum wage? What will he do as A.I. continues to kill jobs?

“The TMI Show” tries to predict the state of the US economy in the coming year. Co-hosts Ted Rall and Manila Chan is joined by Aquiles Larrea, CEO and Founder of Larrea Wealth Management.

TMI Show Ep 43: “Trump vs. Fiscal Hawks”

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Ted Rall

Trump 2.0 is still a month away and he’s causing chaos in Washington. After negotiating a budget deal with the Democrats, DOGE master Elon Musk (either acting alone or with Donald Trump’s backing) spazz-tweeted the deal away, spooking frightened House Republicans into reneging. Then, with Speaker Mike Johnson’s head on the chopping block, Republicans attempted to cut a new deal but Democrats refused to renegotiate. In the end, deficit hawk Republicans voted with Democrats to turn down the Trump deal because it would have abolished the debt limit for at least two years. Another government shutdown looms, mainly because there are two Republican Parties.

The TMI Show’s Ted Rall and Robby West (filling in for Manila Chan) are joined by Chicago Tribune cartoonist Scott Stantis to unravel the madness.

TMI Show Ep 42: “Pre-Trump Economic Jitters”

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Ted Rall

As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House in one month, some economic signals are blinking yellow. Investors unsettled by the Fed’s forecast for fewer cuts in 2025 pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1,123 points, or 2.6%, while the Nasdaq composite dropped 3.6%. The Dow has lost 2,900 points since December 4th. It’s a tale of two economies: consumer sentiment among Republican voters is at its highest since late 2020, whereas Democrats feel the same as they did in the summer of 2022 when inflation was raging.

What are the prospects for a Trump economy during the next few years? Is DOGE real and, if so, will austerity prime the pump or tank the economy?

The TMI Show’s Ted Rall and Manila Chan discuss the economic picture with market maker Todd “Bubba” Horwitz.

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