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In this episode of “The TMI Show,” hosts Ted Rall and Manila Chan dive into the arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, as he faces an ICC warrant for crimes against humanity tied to his brutal “war on drugs.” Joined by Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, president of the Philippines Association for Chinese Studies and a research fellow at Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress, the discussion unpacks the seismic political implications for the Philippines and the U.S.
Within the Philippines, Duterte’s arrest marks a stunning reversal for a once-dominant figure whose family allied with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to secure power in 2022. The arrest highlights the unraveling Duterte-Marcos pact, as well as Sara Duterte’s recent impeachment as vice president and the escalating feud between the pro-China Dutertes and pro-U.S. Marcoses. This power struggle could destabilize Manila’s political landscape, especially with midterm elections looming, testing Marcos’s grip and exposing fissures in a nation still grappling with Duterte’s legacy of extrajudicial killings.
For the U.S., the episode explores a geopolitical tightrope. Duterte’s downfall shifts Philippine foreign policy away from China-friendly ties toward a U.S.-aligned Marcos administration. With expanded U.S. military access via the EDCA, this arrest could solidify Washington’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, countering Beijing’s regional sway. Yet, it risks inflaming Duterte’s base. Let’s decode a pivotal moment in global politics.
